The forthcoming by election in Rochester and Strood will exert profound influence over the outcome of the 2015 general election. Barring miracles, it seems a racing certainty that Nigel Farage will double his current crop of MPs from 1 to 2. This will be achieved despite the best interests of the Tory high command.
There are still nearly 7 months until polling day next May and already the prospect of another coalition is by far the most likely outcome. The only part of this which remains undecided is which parties will make up the new coalition. It will either be a Tory led coalition or a Labour led coalition and current trends would seem to suggest that Labour is on course to emulate the doomed leadership of Michael Foot in 1983. Then as now, a new party had emerged to threaten to the old guard of Tories and Labour. In 1983, it was the SDP but now it is UKIP. The SDP had emerged from erstwhile Labour MPs disgruntled with the socialist dogma of the Labour party. In 1983, the SDP came within a whisker of forming the Opposition. It took Labour 14 years to regain power after that debacle. The current Liberals led by Nick Clegg are made up of many who would naturally have allied themselves to the SDP. They are people like Vince Cable who are Labour at heart but who find the old style socialism too stifling. How things have changed?
The 1983 general election was won partly because the incumbent Tory government had benefited from the Falklands War and all the usual jingoism which tends to accompany such conflicts. But it was equally lost by a left wing split down the middle which had descended in to a period of squabbling and in-fighting. In some ways, the opposite is now happening to the right wing as the Tories try desperately to avert any more MPs being haemorrhaged to UKIP. Let nobody underestimate the potential of UKIP. Just like the SDP in 1983, their potential is huge. They stand for something which resonates with millions of people. Nigel Farage has also proved himself to be a great tactician and an effective orator. He is also being bank rolled by the considerable wealth of the Yorkshire businessman Paul Sykes. So if the right wing of British politics is undergoing a period of in-fighting, why is the left not cashing in?
The great achievement of Tony Blair was his ability to take the centre ground of British politics. Many of his subsequent decisions will haunt him to his dying day but his real trick was to distance the Labour party from it's socialist roots. That was how he was able to secure three consecutive wins. Miliband needs to learn that lesson and learn it fast.
He has been the most overtly left wing Labour leader since Foot and it will all end in tears for him unless he makes a move for the centre ground. Even now it is probably too late for him to undo the mistakes of his tenure thus far. He has been conspicuous by his lack of ideas and his stock response to most problems is to spend more money and put up taxes - not exactly original or desirable!
So if the new coalition is to be Tory-led, who will their partners be? It is inconceivable to think of a Tory-UKIP alliance unless they can finally agree a coherent strategy on Europe. What is more easy to imagine is a repeat of the current coalition with the Liberals once more making up the difference. With our archaic first past the post electoral system, the Liberals might not lose as many seats as people may imagine. A Tory coalition with the SNP or Plaid Cymru would be impossible against the backdrop of the recent debate on independence.
That just leaves one other realistic coalition. That would be rainbow coalition of all parties minus the Tories and I 'd love to be a fly on the wall at a cabinet meeting featuring Ed Balls, Ed Miliband, Nick Clegg, Nigel Farage, Leanne Wood, Nicola Sturgeon, Peter Robinson and Caroline Lucas!
2015 looks set to be the year when the UK voted for more of the same. That would be in keeping with the uneasy relationship of the British with change.
There are still nearly 7 months until polling day next May and already the prospect of another coalition is by far the most likely outcome. The only part of this which remains undecided is which parties will make up the new coalition. It will either be a Tory led coalition or a Labour led coalition and current trends would seem to suggest that Labour is on course to emulate the doomed leadership of Michael Foot in 1983. Then as now, a new party had emerged to threaten to the old guard of Tories and Labour. In 1983, it was the SDP but now it is UKIP. The SDP had emerged from erstwhile Labour MPs disgruntled with the socialist dogma of the Labour party. In 1983, the SDP came within a whisker of forming the Opposition. It took Labour 14 years to regain power after that debacle. The current Liberals led by Nick Clegg are made up of many who would naturally have allied themselves to the SDP. They are people like Vince Cable who are Labour at heart but who find the old style socialism too stifling. How things have changed?
The 1983 general election was won partly because the incumbent Tory government had benefited from the Falklands War and all the usual jingoism which tends to accompany such conflicts. But it was equally lost by a left wing split down the middle which had descended in to a period of squabbling and in-fighting. In some ways, the opposite is now happening to the right wing as the Tories try desperately to avert any more MPs being haemorrhaged to UKIP. Let nobody underestimate the potential of UKIP. Just like the SDP in 1983, their potential is huge. They stand for something which resonates with millions of people. Nigel Farage has also proved himself to be a great tactician and an effective orator. He is also being bank rolled by the considerable wealth of the Yorkshire businessman Paul Sykes. So if the right wing of British politics is undergoing a period of in-fighting, why is the left not cashing in?
The great achievement of Tony Blair was his ability to take the centre ground of British politics. Many of his subsequent decisions will haunt him to his dying day but his real trick was to distance the Labour party from it's socialist roots. That was how he was able to secure three consecutive wins. Miliband needs to learn that lesson and learn it fast.
He has been the most overtly left wing Labour leader since Foot and it will all end in tears for him unless he makes a move for the centre ground. Even now it is probably too late for him to undo the mistakes of his tenure thus far. He has been conspicuous by his lack of ideas and his stock response to most problems is to spend more money and put up taxes - not exactly original or desirable!
So if the new coalition is to be Tory-led, who will their partners be? It is inconceivable to think of a Tory-UKIP alliance unless they can finally agree a coherent strategy on Europe. What is more easy to imagine is a repeat of the current coalition with the Liberals once more making up the difference. With our archaic first past the post electoral system, the Liberals might not lose as many seats as people may imagine. A Tory coalition with the SNP or Plaid Cymru would be impossible against the backdrop of the recent debate on independence.
That just leaves one other realistic coalition. That would be rainbow coalition of all parties minus the Tories and I 'd love to be a fly on the wall at a cabinet meeting featuring Ed Balls, Ed Miliband, Nick Clegg, Nigel Farage, Leanne Wood, Nicola Sturgeon, Peter Robinson and Caroline Lucas!
2015 looks set to be the year when the UK voted for more of the same. That would be in keeping with the uneasy relationship of the British with change.
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