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May 7th: A warning from history

Next Thursday, those of us who feel suuficiently engaged will enter a voting booth and cast our vote. Before we do so, we need to heed the very real warnings which make this election unique in a number of ways.

Barring celestial intervention, we will once again see a coalition government. To consider that eventuality, it is instructive to cast a critical eye over our current ConLib coalition. Has it been a disaster? No, I don't think that would be fair. Had it been a Conservative majority, it might possibly have become a disaster with the scythe through public services veering too far to the right.

We must also remind ourselves that Gordon Brown did his utmost to form a minority coalition but soon conceded defeat. In life, we need a bit of luck and Brown's had long since dried up. History I fear will be rather unkind to Gordon Brown. He promised us prudence and delivered profligacy.

The sales ethos founded across the pond in North America is based on a simple foundation: Under promise and over deliver. Had Brown followed suit, his outcome might have been rather different but the public in the UK or anywhere else is just a big herd of people.

Herd mentaility is as old as the hills. It is the tribalism of herds which fosters political allegiance and, in extreme cases, war. I wonder how many people still vote as their parents once did?

On May 7th 1915, two tribes were at war as Germany sought to take control of Europe and put Great Britain's imperial might in it's place. On that fateful day, a ship left New York for Ireland and before it did so, the German embassy in New York warned that it would be a legitimate target for the torpedo attacks of it's relatively new submarine fleet. Britain and America protested. The Lusitania set sail and was duly torpedoed off Southern Ireland with a loss of life which was immense even by the obscene standards of the Great War.

They were warned and they ignored the warning. The Lusitania was also found to be carrying vast stores of munitions bound for Britain. Hence the warning - the Germans knew they had to sink it or face the consequences of a newly armed opponent. It doesn't make their decision right but it does make it a little easier to try and understand.

When we vote on May 7th, we are effectively choosing a new coalition. Would we like a red one or a blue one? If we want a red one, we take a big step toward breaking up the union. Tribalism is once more threatening our three hundred year old union and a red coalition will give a green light to that tribe.

If we choose a blue coalition, we will at least save the union. We have been warned and now we must be careful what we wish for. Once the Union is breached, it will be gone forever.

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