Already, people on both sides of the pond are citing 2016 as a ground-breaking year. Thus far, we can still console ourselves of a few certainties regardless of how the outcomes compared with our own views. For one thing, election polls are just that - a straw poll of opinion. The reason why the EU Referendum poll and the recent American election both seemingly defied the expert pollsters is actually quite simple. The relationship between a member of the public and the ballot box is, rightly, a deeply personal and private affair. They are not (and nor should they be) obliged to divulge their true intention to anyone. It is entirely a matter for themselves and rightly so.
Much has been made of the support for Donald Trump coming from the less educated members of American society. Perhaps so but their votes are worth just as much as anyone else's. In the end, a vote is one person's say and we are all entitled to our say. I have seldom witnessed such an avalanche of self-righteous opprobrium as voters on the losing sides give vent to their spleen. Much of this fails to ackowledge the significant numbers who still choose not to vote. As unpalatable as it may seem to some, that too is their prerogative even if it can seem rather irritating.
Even after four months, the UK is just as immersed in the EU as ever it was. My point being that the wrong question might have been posed in the first place. I don't know who advised David Cameron on the wording of the EU referendum vote but they appear to have raised far more questions than answers. Cameron himself is, of course, well out of it and the poisoned chalice of political life has passed to the woman who did make it to the top; Theresa May.
The irony of May's accession to the top job will be lost on few people. Whereas the wicked witch Hilary Clinton garnered fractionally more of the popular vote than her Republican rival, in the end it was he who gained the requisite number of Electoral College votes; they both knew the rules and that, as they say, is how the cookie crumbles. But still, we must give credit to Mrs. Clinton because 60,122,876 votes is no mean feat - even if it ultimately failed to secure the big prize. May, by contrast, got to be Prime Minister on the say so of 300-odd Tory MPs. So much easier in the UK than Stateside..
But just how much of an "upset" have these two results really been? Just because a few pollsters called the result before the result came out means nothing. Just because a few political commentators plumped for Remain and Clinton means nothing. In the end, both results were achieved as much by the underachievement of the incumbent as by the performance of the challenger. Politically experienced Clinton may be, but it was evident for a long time that there was huge disappointment when she secured the Democratic nomination. In the end, people are perceived to be part of the problem or part of the solution. I suspect strongly that Clinton's downfall was that to a great many people, she was linked to the very political system with which they had long since tired; Big government which knows best and to hell with the little guy. People will only take so much of that type of approach. There is a limit to which they will put up with being ignored and Clinton et al exceeded that limit. All Trump did (aside from his outrageous language) was to point out that he knew what people were disillusioned with. But on this occasion, that was sufficient because I suspect that large swathes of the American people would have voted for Elmo if he had stood. That said, Trump's ego is so gargantuan, I suspect that he may well lose interest before his four years are up. For people like Donald, it is all about winning and losing. And he won.
But Big Government is problem just about everywhere as vast sums are spent to support the inflated salaries of a political elite whose meaningful engagement with their electorate is all too often cursory. That has been a huge factor in recent results. And it is not just a problem at a national level. Even at a local level, that same attitude continues to rub people up the wrong way. Only today, I read a report by the Welsh National Audit Office informing local councils that they should be doing more to raise money such as increasing the cost of car parking. The report went on to acknowledge that this might prove a problem for a lot of people who might not be able to afford the increases! Who on earth would put their name to such a daft piece of draft guidance and what has it cost to produce? But it doesn't end there. In their response, the Welsh local government association has said that they don't have the same power to do this as their equivalents in England and Scotland. In other words, they would implement such charges if it was easier for them to do so. No consultation. No member of the public given their say. This is precisely the attitude which just won Trump the US presidency. People are fed up.
As I write, the same political pundits are predicting a snap election in the UK in early 2017. As with Gordon Brown in 2007, I predict the same outcome. I believe Theresa May has waited so long to get her hands on power, she will not risk losing it after such a short tenure. Power of that sort does strange things to people. It is rather like that ring in the "Lord of the Rings". Once worn, the holder is never quite the same again.
But to illustrate what can happen when we expect an outcome in what at face value seems to be a fairly straightforward situation, I share with you a story which always amuses me greatly. There is an excellent biography of the late Vivian Stanshall by Lucian Randall and Chris Welch entitled "Ginger Geezer". Viv, as everyone knew him, was the driving force behind the zany, anarchic band, "The Bonzo Dog Doo-Dah Band". The stories of Viv are endless but this one is a personal favourite.
During a break in touring, Viv was at home indulging himself in his hobby. Viv was an avid collector of aquatic animals and kept several tanks in his home. As with most other aspects of his life, he took it to an absurd level and adopted a custom of donning a full body wet suit resplendent with snorkel and mask when cleaning out the tanks. One day he was leafing his way through the local newspaper when he happened on an advert for a portable power shower and duly filled in the coupon under the name "Mr. Penguin". A few days later, a representative of the shower company rang the door bell on the day when Viv was cleaning out his tanks. The door opened and there stood a strapping ginger haired bloke in a full body wet suit wearing a snorkel and mask. To her eternal credit, the rep looked him up and down and asked, "Is Mrs. Penguin at home?". See what I mean?
Much has been made of the support for Donald Trump coming from the less educated members of American society. Perhaps so but their votes are worth just as much as anyone else's. In the end, a vote is one person's say and we are all entitled to our say. I have seldom witnessed such an avalanche of self-righteous opprobrium as voters on the losing sides give vent to their spleen. Much of this fails to ackowledge the significant numbers who still choose not to vote. As unpalatable as it may seem to some, that too is their prerogative even if it can seem rather irritating.
Even after four months, the UK is just as immersed in the EU as ever it was. My point being that the wrong question might have been posed in the first place. I don't know who advised David Cameron on the wording of the EU referendum vote but they appear to have raised far more questions than answers. Cameron himself is, of course, well out of it and the poisoned chalice of political life has passed to the woman who did make it to the top; Theresa May.
The irony of May's accession to the top job will be lost on few people. Whereas the wicked witch Hilary Clinton garnered fractionally more of the popular vote than her Republican rival, in the end it was he who gained the requisite number of Electoral College votes; they both knew the rules and that, as they say, is how the cookie crumbles. But still, we must give credit to Mrs. Clinton because 60,122,876 votes is no mean feat - even if it ultimately failed to secure the big prize. May, by contrast, got to be Prime Minister on the say so of 300-odd Tory MPs. So much easier in the UK than Stateside..
But just how much of an "upset" have these two results really been? Just because a few pollsters called the result before the result came out means nothing. Just because a few political commentators plumped for Remain and Clinton means nothing. In the end, both results were achieved as much by the underachievement of the incumbent as by the performance of the challenger. Politically experienced Clinton may be, but it was evident for a long time that there was huge disappointment when she secured the Democratic nomination. In the end, people are perceived to be part of the problem or part of the solution. I suspect strongly that Clinton's downfall was that to a great many people, she was linked to the very political system with which they had long since tired; Big government which knows best and to hell with the little guy. People will only take so much of that type of approach. There is a limit to which they will put up with being ignored and Clinton et al exceeded that limit. All Trump did (aside from his outrageous language) was to point out that he knew what people were disillusioned with. But on this occasion, that was sufficient because I suspect that large swathes of the American people would have voted for Elmo if he had stood. That said, Trump's ego is so gargantuan, I suspect that he may well lose interest before his four years are up. For people like Donald, it is all about winning and losing. And he won.
But Big Government is problem just about everywhere as vast sums are spent to support the inflated salaries of a political elite whose meaningful engagement with their electorate is all too often cursory. That has been a huge factor in recent results. And it is not just a problem at a national level. Even at a local level, that same attitude continues to rub people up the wrong way. Only today, I read a report by the Welsh National Audit Office informing local councils that they should be doing more to raise money such as increasing the cost of car parking. The report went on to acknowledge that this might prove a problem for a lot of people who might not be able to afford the increases! Who on earth would put their name to such a daft piece of draft guidance and what has it cost to produce? But it doesn't end there. In their response, the Welsh local government association has said that they don't have the same power to do this as their equivalents in England and Scotland. In other words, they would implement such charges if it was easier for them to do so. No consultation. No member of the public given their say. This is precisely the attitude which just won Trump the US presidency. People are fed up.
As I write, the same political pundits are predicting a snap election in the UK in early 2017. As with Gordon Brown in 2007, I predict the same outcome. I believe Theresa May has waited so long to get her hands on power, she will not risk losing it after such a short tenure. Power of that sort does strange things to people. It is rather like that ring in the "Lord of the Rings". Once worn, the holder is never quite the same again.
But to illustrate what can happen when we expect an outcome in what at face value seems to be a fairly straightforward situation, I share with you a story which always amuses me greatly. There is an excellent biography of the late Vivian Stanshall by Lucian Randall and Chris Welch entitled "Ginger Geezer". Viv, as everyone knew him, was the driving force behind the zany, anarchic band, "The Bonzo Dog Doo-Dah Band". The stories of Viv are endless but this one is a personal favourite.
During a break in touring, Viv was at home indulging himself in his hobby. Viv was an avid collector of aquatic animals and kept several tanks in his home. As with most other aspects of his life, he took it to an absurd level and adopted a custom of donning a full body wet suit resplendent with snorkel and mask when cleaning out the tanks. One day he was leafing his way through the local newspaper when he happened on an advert for a portable power shower and duly filled in the coupon under the name "Mr. Penguin". A few days later, a representative of the shower company rang the door bell on the day when Viv was cleaning out his tanks. The door opened and there stood a strapping ginger haired bloke in a full body wet suit wearing a snorkel and mask. To her eternal credit, the rep looked him up and down and asked, "Is Mrs. Penguin at home?". See what I mean?
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