As we approach the final quarter leading up to the Scottish independence referendum on September 18th, the debate has started to enter top gear with the rhetoric of both sides having been noticably increased in recent days.
Only today, news has emerged of a secret poll commissioned by the Westminster Government. True to form, Alex Salmond has urged them to publish their findings knowing that the momentum is with his "Yes" campaign. Having spent £46,500 commissioning this poll, Nick Clegg has reverted to his default answer that the only poll that counts is the one on September 18th. Strictly speaking he is quite right but at a time when the public has become utterly fed up with the lack of accountability from our public servants, it is surely now incumbent on Clegg to publish the findings of the poll. It may well be that the figures are less than attractive for proponents of the "No" campaign but that rather misses the point. If you make the decision to spend £46,500 of public money, you are obliged to let the public know what you found. Failure to do so will only serve to further compound the already large divide between them and us. Failure to publish will only strengthen the existing belief of so many people North of the border - Westminster doesn't give a fig about Scotland.
As we enter the final furlong, the "No" vote still holds a lead but that lead seems to be on the wane. The gap between the "No" and "Yes" votes seems to be narrowing by the day but the numbers undecided appears to be fairly level at about 15%. It now seems more clear than ever that the latter will have the final say on Septmeber 18th. Although the "Yes" vote looks as though it may yet increase by a few percentage points at the expense of the "No" votes, it looks as though that 15% of undecided voters will ultimately determine the future of Scotland and, by inference, the United Kingdom.
What will be the effect of a "Yes" vote? Overnight, it will all but guarantee Tory Government South of the border for many years to come. Labour has always depended heavily on it's support in Scotland and would see it's number of MPs drop drastically. For that reason I am not surprised to learn that Alistair Darling, Gordon Brown and Douglas Alexander have all been more prominent in recent days as the enormity of a "Yes" vote becomes clearer for Labour. A "Yes" vote would be a devastating blow for Labour. The Liberals too have always been able to depend on a handful of seats in the far North West of Scotland. They of all the parties can ill afford to lose any seats as their reported levels of support are said to have entered the ignominious territory of single figures in percentage points. The Tories remain about as disliked as it is possible to be in Scotland so a "Yes" vote will have little or no effect on their number of seats. UKIP have to be discussed here because a "Yes" vote would have very serious implications for them if only in name. Let me explain.
The United Kingdom Independence Party would have to seek a new name. The Kingdom would no longer be united so they would have to re-define the people they purport to represent. This may sound semantic but they would look a little silly if they continued with a name which didn't represent the demographic of the people they pertain to speak up for. I don't know what name they would have to use in future but it certainly won't trip off the tongue like UKIP does. It may well be that UKIP wouldn't garner much support in Scotland anyway but I suspect that a great many erstwhile Tory supporters disillusioned with the Tory party over years of neglect in Scotland might be persuaded by the more right wing approach of Nigel Farage.
At times like this, it is instructive to cast our eyes through the history books. In 1997, the Welsh were faced with a referendum for devolution. In the weeks and months leading up to polling day, the "No" vote seemed to be holding sway. On the day though, a wafer slim majority was achieved by the "Yes" vote and the rest as they say is history. The margin of victory then in Wales may well be a portent for the Scots. The "Yes" vote in Wales in 1997 achieved a far from convincing 50.3% of the vote. But that was enough. The die was cast. By coincidence, that referendum was also held on September 18th.
Whatever your opinion of him, Alex Salmond stands out as the outstanding politician of his generation. Whereas the Russians have just taken Eastern Ukraine by brute force, Alex Salmond presumes to take Scotland by the power of his arguments and his ability to win the ideological debate. For all their efforts to bring in their big hitters, Labour look second rate compared to the wily Salmond.
Only today, news has emerged of a secret poll commissioned by the Westminster Government. True to form, Alex Salmond has urged them to publish their findings knowing that the momentum is with his "Yes" campaign. Having spent £46,500 commissioning this poll, Nick Clegg has reverted to his default answer that the only poll that counts is the one on September 18th. Strictly speaking he is quite right but at a time when the public has become utterly fed up with the lack of accountability from our public servants, it is surely now incumbent on Clegg to publish the findings of the poll. It may well be that the figures are less than attractive for proponents of the "No" campaign but that rather misses the point. If you make the decision to spend £46,500 of public money, you are obliged to let the public know what you found. Failure to do so will only serve to further compound the already large divide between them and us. Failure to publish will only strengthen the existing belief of so many people North of the border - Westminster doesn't give a fig about Scotland.
As we enter the final furlong, the "No" vote still holds a lead but that lead seems to be on the wane. The gap between the "No" and "Yes" votes seems to be narrowing by the day but the numbers undecided appears to be fairly level at about 15%. It now seems more clear than ever that the latter will have the final say on Septmeber 18th. Although the "Yes" vote looks as though it may yet increase by a few percentage points at the expense of the "No" votes, it looks as though that 15% of undecided voters will ultimately determine the future of Scotland and, by inference, the United Kingdom.
What will be the effect of a "Yes" vote? Overnight, it will all but guarantee Tory Government South of the border for many years to come. Labour has always depended heavily on it's support in Scotland and would see it's number of MPs drop drastically. For that reason I am not surprised to learn that Alistair Darling, Gordon Brown and Douglas Alexander have all been more prominent in recent days as the enormity of a "Yes" vote becomes clearer for Labour. A "Yes" vote would be a devastating blow for Labour. The Liberals too have always been able to depend on a handful of seats in the far North West of Scotland. They of all the parties can ill afford to lose any seats as their reported levels of support are said to have entered the ignominious territory of single figures in percentage points. The Tories remain about as disliked as it is possible to be in Scotland so a "Yes" vote will have little or no effect on their number of seats. UKIP have to be discussed here because a "Yes" vote would have very serious implications for them if only in name. Let me explain.
The United Kingdom Independence Party would have to seek a new name. The Kingdom would no longer be united so they would have to re-define the people they purport to represent. This may sound semantic but they would look a little silly if they continued with a name which didn't represent the demographic of the people they pertain to speak up for. I don't know what name they would have to use in future but it certainly won't trip off the tongue like UKIP does. It may well be that UKIP wouldn't garner much support in Scotland anyway but I suspect that a great many erstwhile Tory supporters disillusioned with the Tory party over years of neglect in Scotland might be persuaded by the more right wing approach of Nigel Farage.
At times like this, it is instructive to cast our eyes through the history books. In 1997, the Welsh were faced with a referendum for devolution. In the weeks and months leading up to polling day, the "No" vote seemed to be holding sway. On the day though, a wafer slim majority was achieved by the "Yes" vote and the rest as they say is history. The margin of victory then in Wales may well be a portent for the Scots. The "Yes" vote in Wales in 1997 achieved a far from convincing 50.3% of the vote. But that was enough. The die was cast. By coincidence, that referendum was also held on September 18th.
Whatever your opinion of him, Alex Salmond stands out as the outstanding politician of his generation. Whereas the Russians have just taken Eastern Ukraine by brute force, Alex Salmond presumes to take Scotland by the power of his arguments and his ability to win the ideological debate. For all their efforts to bring in their big hitters, Labour look second rate compared to the wily Salmond.
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