Scotland Matters After All!

The decision of the three leaders of the main political parties in Westminster to venture North of the Border today was rather more than closing the stable door after the horse has bolted. At best, the timing of their visit was rather less than genuine. At worst, it displayed the very arrogance which has brought Scotland to the brink of independence.

Each of the Westminster elite had their own hidden agenda for going up North today. For Cameron, he at least had to be seen to be trying to save the Union although there are many who suspect that a Yes vote will secretly please him since this will make long term Tory rule in Westminster a very real proposition. Of the three stooges who went to Scotland today, it is paradoxically Cameron who stands to lose the least since the Tories only have one MP in Scotland anyway – and that was achieved contrary to expectation.

As usual, Clegg watched the actions of the other two and sought to align himself. His stock might have risen had he displayed the courage to remain in Westminster. He would have appeared more genuine while making the other two appear more desperate. Although the Liberals have a long tradition of Scottish MPs, they are rather fewer in number than a century ago. A Yes vote will have little impact on the Liberals in Westminster one way or the other. This brings us to Miliband.

Without question, he is the one for whom a Yes vote would spell disaster. For mainly partisan reasons, Labour continues to boast significant numbers of MPs in Scotland. A Yes vote will make a Labour majority in Westminster very difficult if not impossible. Just as the Tories are despised and mistrusted in Scotland, Labour has left a very bad taste in the mouth after the Blair/Brown debacle South of the border.

It is clear to me (as it has been for months now) that a Yes vote is now a done deal. The key to situations such as this one is momentum. We witnessed the same phenomenon in Wales in 1997. The No vote led the way all the way until the final furlong but it is only the finishing line that counts and like an outsider in the Grand National, the Welsh voted for devolution against all odds. Compared to the current polls in Scotland, the Welsh vote was even less convincing.

I don’t believe the presence of the Westminster clones made a jot of difference today. The result is already in the bag and for the vast majority, minds have been made up. It is difficult to gauge the extent to which Cameron might have given yet more impetus to the Yes vote but he will have done nothing for the No vote.

When the dust has settled and the enormity of the result begins to sink in, the Scots will be faced with the mother of all hangovers the morning after. Put simply, a Yes vote will be messy for everyone. From a constitutional standpoint, it will be a nightmare on many levels. Organising their own currency will also be a considerable challenge. Respective relationships with the EU will differ hugely as the Scots seek greater integration while the rest of us negotiate our way out. 

Two men in particular must have been grinning like Cheshire cats today. Obviously, Alex Salmond has had one of those days which politicians can only dream of. Just do nothing and let your opponents do the hard work for you. Nigel Farage by contrast has been able to knuckle down to theimportant job of ensuring a UKIP win in the forthcoming by-election in Clacton. Out of such acorns do oak trees grow and Farage will be acutely aware of the importance of getting a first Westminster seat for UKIP while giving the Cameron a bloody nose to boot.

Much has been written about the Welsh and Ulster in the context of the independence debate but Scotland has something they don't have - oil. That is the main reason why the Scots have the capacity to go it alone and why the Welsh and Ulster don't. Although it might well be a tough few years for an independent Scotland, they at least have a good long term chance of survival provided they have the foresight to look North and learn from the Norwegians. The latter have exerted high taxes while providing excellent care for their children and their elderly. They have also resisted the temptation to squander the proceeds of their oil. In the process, they have created the largest sovereign wealth fund in the world. This means that even if their oil dried up tomorrow, Norway could live off the interest on their accumulated wealth. I wonder if Alex Salmond has similar plans? If he has, the future of Scotland as an independent state looks rosy indeed.